The global off-grid solar sector will require approximately $11.4 billion in investment to expand electricity access by 2030, according to new research showing that the number of people using off-grid solar products has increased by 26% over the past two years.
The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2026, published by the World Bank Group’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and global industry association GOGLA, found that the number of people using off-grid solar products rose from 118 million to 149 million.
Released at the Global Off-Grid Solar Forum and Expo in Kigali, Rwanda, the report identifies off-grid solar as the lowest-cost electricity access solution for at least 398 million people currently living without power.
The findings highlight the growing role of distributed renewable energy infrastructure in supporting households, businesses, agriculture and essential public services, particularly in areas beyond the reach of conventional electricity networks.
$11.4bn financing requirement identified
The report estimates that approximately $11.4 billion will be needed to realise off-grid solar’s potential to connect hundreds of millions of people to electricity by 2030.
The proposed financing requirements include annual investment of $1.3 billion in grants and affordability subsidies, alongside $1.6 billion in equity, debt and receivables financing.
These funding mechanisms are intended to address both the upfront costs of deploying off-grid solar infrastructure and the affordability challenges faced by households without electricity.
Despite the sector’s expansion, financing has not increased sufficiently to meet projected demand, according to the report.
World Bank Group commitments to off-grid solar reached $974 million during financial years 2025–2026, matching the level recorded in 2023–2024.
The report identifies sustained public and private investment as essential to expanding deployment, alongside policy measures that reduce costs and improve access to financing.
Sarah Malm, Executive Director of GOGLA, said the sector needed to be recognised as an established component of energy infrastructure.
“Off-grid solar has proven it can deliver at scale, through shocks, and in places the grid has not reached,” she said.
“Yet financing has not kept pace with what off-grid solar is being asked to do.”
Distributed solar central to African electrification programmes
The research comes as governments and development institutions advance Mission 300, the World Bank Group and African Development Bank initiative targeting electricity access for 300 million people across sub-Saharan Africa by 2030.
Distributed renewable energy systems, including off-grid solar, are expected to contribute to meeting that target alongside conventional grid expansion and mini-grid development.
According to the report, 80% of the 35 National Energy Compacts developed under Mission 300 include distributed renewable energy within their electricity connection targets.
These national plans are intended to guide investment priorities and support the development of energy infrastructure projects.
Governments and development partners are increasingly using public financing to attract private investment into distributed energy systems.
The report identifies the need to translate national electrification commitments into funded projects capable of delivering reliable electricity access to underserved communities.
Solar systems increasingly support businesses and public services
Off-grid solar is expanding beyond household lighting into applications supporting agricultural production, healthcare, education and commercial activity.
The report estimates that 7.4 million people use off-grid solar technologies to operate microenterprises or support income-generating activities.
Applications include solar-powered irrigation, retail operations and services that require a reliable electricity supply.
Over the past 15 years, off-grid solar products have generated an estimated $28 billion in additional income and savings for customers.
Employment within the sector is also increasing.
The market surveyed for the report employed approximately 219,000 people, representing growth of 29% over two years.
Many of these positions involve sales, installation, maintenance and technical services delivered within the communities using the equipment.
The research also provides evidence of equipment durability, with 95% of surveyed customers reporting that their solar home systems remained operational four or more years after purchase.
Affordability remains a barrier to wider deployment
Although off-grid solar represents the lowest-cost electricity access option for a substantial proportion of unconnected households, affordability continues to constrain adoption.
The report found that only one in three households without electricity could afford an entry-level solar home system through pay-as-you-go financing.
A further third could afford such a system only with significant financial difficulty.
The findings indicate that reducing equipment costs and improving financing arrangements will be important to reaching populations that remain without electricity.
The report identifies VAT exemptions, import duty waivers and targeted subsidies as potential measures to improve affordability and support market expansion.
These interventions could help reduce the financial barriers associated with deploying and purchasing off-grid solar technologies.
Energy infrastructure investment increasingly includes off-grid systems
The report reflects a broader shift in how off-grid solar is positioned within national energy development strategies.
Previously regarded primarily as a temporary solution until conventional grid connections became available, distributed solar systems are increasingly being treated as long-term infrastructure serving households, businesses and public facilities.
Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius, Manager of ESMAP at the World Bank Group, said the technology had developed into an important source of electricity supporting economic activity and employment.
“Off-grid solar has grown from a basic lighting solution into a critical source of electricity for hundreds of millions of people, strengthening energy security, resilience and affordability while creating jobs,” she said.
The report concludes that achieving wider electricity access will depend on sustained financing, national policy support and the mobilisation of private investment.
With at least 398 million people identified as potential beneficiaries of least-cost off-grid solar solutions, the findings point to a substantial pipeline of distributed energy infrastructure investment opportunities through 2030.
